Beyond Earth (ATWG) - Chapter 36 - Theory and Action for the Future of Humans in Space by K. Cox. B. Krone and L. Morris

From The Space Library

Jump to: navigation, search

Chapter 36

Theory and Action for the Future of Humans in Space

By Kenneth J. Cox, Bob Krone and Langdon Morris, Editors

"Man's venture into space is a search for the anti-theory. It is a search for the shocking. A search for the unexpected. A search for what lies beyond all of our theories—a search for the Big Surprise. Space is crammed with theories. Theories about the cosmos have been put forth by every culture known to man— from the tribes of the Hopi Indians to those of the Trobriand Islanders, from the civilizations of the Babylonians to those of the Chinese and the Gauls. Every time we launch a vehicle, we follow the tracks of theory laid by Galileo, Newton, and Einstein. Man's entry into space is the very opposite of theory. It is like Darwin's Voyage of the Beagle. It is a hero's journey, a quest for the unexpected. It is a search for challenges that defy our theories utterly. It is a hunt for the empirically shocking. A hunt for the startles and the awes from which unimagined theories are derived."

Howard Bloom in an e-mail to Bob Krone

Opportunities

What will humanity have accomplished in space by 2057, the 100 year anniversary of Sputnik? By 2069, the anniversary of Apollo? Or imagine that we are approaching 2100, and thus the end of another century of human history, at least by the Christian calendar. Will there be permanent human settlements in Earth orbit? On the moon? On Mars? Will there be mining camps on asteroids? Helium 3 farms on the moon? Solar arrays in Earth orbit beaming megawatts back to the surface? How many children will be born in zero G? How many will be born, live long and productive lives, and die without ever setting foot on the home planet? Will they appear in census statistics of any nation of Earth? Whose law will govern the treatment of their estates? What courts will have jurisdiction over their disputes?

As we were preparing the last chapters of this book Howard Bloom sent us an email in which he included the comments we have quoted above. We are sure, without question, that Howard is right, and we wonder what unimagined theories we will have derived, based on what new experiences that we cannot now foresee. What challenges will we have overcome, and what theories will those challenges have made obsolete?

We believe that space offers unparalled opportunities for humans to discover, to develop, to exploit, and to improve the human condition throughout the Solar System, on Earth, and everywhere else we venture. We believe that our adventure in space is indeed a heroic journey, not necessarily because of the bravery that space travel requires, but because when we journey to space we must confront ourselves, we must find within our selves the best and most enduring of qualities - teamwork, dedication, insight, thoughtfulness, empathy, trust, curiosity, faith, and many other attributes that we admire in others and strive for in ourselves.

We believe; we hope; and we strive for such an outcome, for we understand that the journey to space holds unmatched promise for all of humanity.

The mosaic of ideas found in this book arose from the creative minds of the forty-two contributing authors, men and women who have brought together their experience, their knowledge, and their wisdom to produce this convergence of ideas.

In these chapters we have traveled a wide path. We have examined history, mythology, attitudes, beliefs, values, leadership, governance, and policy. We have reviewed education, law, management, risk, and strategy. We have encountered biology, biotechnology, bacteriology, cognition, evolution, ecology, intelligence, colonization, and cooperation. We have examined planetary defense, lunar cities, and spacecraft crew operations. And tennis.

These themes, all of these themes and of course many others, will come into play in ways that are as countless as they are unpredictable, for these are the elements of human civilization, and when we go to space as we envision that it happen, we certainly take all of human civilization with us.

The ideas and theories presented here flow from a multitude of personal experiences in aerospace and all the industries associated with launching humans into space. We recognize that in the resulting mosaic are individual perspectives that reflect our own personal fascinations and participation in the cosmic venture that places humans in fragile machines and sends them hurtling into space. There is no one explanation that answers why we do this or why we want to continue this great endeavor, but we do.

Theory Definition

A theory, any theory, is the attempt to explain reality as it is observed, experienced, and understood today, and it is used as the basis to solve existing and future problems and to make predictions. Its broader purposes may include the desire to understand, explain, invent, improve, validate, or justify, and it also provides a framework for research. The test of theory is that it must be capable of being shared, reproduced, put into practice, and verified. Any theory, like many previous ones, may take a very long time to be fully verified, and unfolding events and discoveries could require and at times significant modifications. We evaluate theories based on how well they perform these critical jobs.

Theories fall into three categories: 1) Descriptive Theories explain "What exists;" 2) Values Theories explain and defend "What is preferred;" and 3) Normative Theories provide the foundations for "What should be." Normative Theory is perhaps the most interesting of these, and like a ship's engine and rudder it provides direction, force, and logic to drive change. Like any good theory, it can help people and systems to avoid waste or destructive trial and error, and even to avoid failures and catastrophes by helping managers, controllers, and even citizens and voters to recognize and avoid pathological theories that lead to undesired outcomes. Any good theory helps us find order in random or chaotic events and situations, and the basic function of Normative Theory in particular is to provide a set of prescriptions for leadership.

The theory we put forth here addresses the challenges and unknowns we face when humans begin migrating to space, and recommends concepts and components of the "Mission" to begin this next great human adventure. The human experiences encountered in the actual space environment will, of course, require the "mission" to adapt and change along the way.

Theory for Space Exploration, 1957 - 2006

If we look back at the beginning of the Space Age and the very early days of NASA, the theory in evidence shows an interesting combination of two very different cultures. On the one hand, NASA in its early days was a fountainhead of innovation and creativity. Young and old scientists and engineers worked together during the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs to produce a series of space craft that accomplished an unprecedented feat, the moon landings, in an astonishingly short period of time, a decade.

At the same time, the military-industrial complex was also a big part of the story, as the aerospace industry cranked out designs, components, and systems using its traditional contracting and subcontracting methods to produce billions of dollars worth of hardware, software, and know-how. Following Apollo, however, the first elements, innovation and creativity were largely lost, replaced with a government bureaucracy that operated in the aerospace industry's preferred way of working. As that way of working became institutionalized, so too did the work. The sense of urgency was lost and the bureaucracy became stifling. Errors of communication and judgment led to the loss of two Space Shuttles and their crews, while the Space Station languished, incomplete. Meanwhile, economic conditions and the geopolitical situation have changed radically. The Cold War ended, the war on terror began, and the US budget deficit sank deeper and deeper into red.

We can summarize the theories in effect here as follows:

1) Descriptive Theory of the space program, 1980 - 2006, What exists: Competition with the USSR compels the US to seek dominance in the literal high ground of space. The end of the Cold War leaves the space program largely without purpose.

2) Values Theory of the space program, 1980 - 2006, What is preferred: A series of NASA administrators search unsuccessfully for an overriding purpose, until Dan Goldin finally arrives at "Faster, Better, Cheaper," by which he means for NASA to succeed at less ambitious endeavors. Society is underwhelmed.

3) Normative Theory of the space program, 1980 - 2006, What should be: This dimension remains largely unaddressed, which is to say that NASA has decidedly lacked a compelling mission.

While we are critical of NASA as an organization and particularly as a bureaucracy, we do not intend to criticize any individuals in the agency. In fact, we know from exhaustive first hand experience that NASA is composed of brilliant and dedicated individuals who work extraordinarily hard and regularly produce brilliance. No, the issue is not with the people, but with the "system of NASA," with the values that the system displays, and with its underlying theories. Shaping such a system is, of course, the responsibility of leadership, beginning not only with the NASA Administrator, but also with the President, the Congress, and also with the roots of this tree, the American people themselves. We all bear some responsibility for the unsatisfying situation in which we find the space program; and as many of the authors of this book have suggested, rectifying the so-called mess will require new ways of thinking and interacting.

Clearly, then, the theoretical basis upon which this space program rests has reached the end of its useful life, and new theories will replace it.

Theory for Space Exploration and Development, 2006 and Beyond

The viewpoint shared by the many authors of this book is that now is the right time for a new theory of not only space exploration, but space development.

Let us articulate this, first of all, in terms of the three kinds of theory. Please note that we have shifted our terminology a bit here, from reference to a "space program" to reference to a "space movement." The reasons for this shift should be evident in the discussion that follows, for it addresses the transition from a government project to an enduring process of civilization..

1) Descriptive Theory of the space movement, 2006 and beyond, What exists: The perspective offered by today's mass media suggests that the world appears to be a mess, and the mess is getting worse. Cultural, ideological, and religious conflicts are global in scope, while supplies of critical resources are tightening, leading to further conflict. We appear to be entering a period of unprecedented crisis due to global climate change.

But at the same time, remarkable progress has been made in space science and space technology, and a new generation of space vehicles is emerging. Europe, Japan, China, and India are joining the US and Russia as space-faring nations, and in the US a great deal of the initiative has shifted away from government and toward private enterprise. There is serious talk about private space launches and space tourism as a new paradigm seems to be emerging: space commerce is becoming a reality.

If this descriptive theory is true, then we are at the threshold of a new era.


2) Values Theory of the space movement, 2006 and beyond, What is preferred: If we are indeed at the dawn of a new era, then what sort of era shall it be? The possibilities and perils of marketplace competition await us as entrepreneurs prepare to attempt to make new fortunes taking people away from Earth, and bringing precious resources back.

The taking away is tourism, of course, but one day it could also be emigration to permanent settlements. The bringing back could be electricity generated from solar stations in orbit, or Helium 3 from the moon, or beaming solar energy from space directly to remote areas of the Earth without costly infrastructure. Part of the reason we want to go is because we don't know all that much about what's out there!

3) Normative Theory of the space movement, 2006 and beyond, What should be: Human civilization is at risk, due primarily to the impact from human activities and actions. The purpose of going to space must therefore be to restore balance to civilization. Thus, the space movement is a means through which to address the most critical issues that humanity faces, which include, of course, violence and war - we must go to space to promote peace, and to learn how to live peacefully.

It also means we go to promote learning, and indeed there are few activities that compress the learning process as much as space travel, as it confronts every aspect of life and life support in an unyieldingly harsh environment. We have much to learn about life on Earth by attempting to live off the Earth. It also means that we go to promote exploration, to discover whatever is there.

And what can we say about those who will undertake these journeys?

Humans who inhabit space will find life radically different from the experiences of any humans on Earth throughout our long history. But it is simply not possible from our present perspective to define or enumerate what those differences will be and how they will affect human life.

As the chapters of this book have noted so eloquently, we believe that humans living in space will be forced to deal with paradigm shifts in the physical, biological, technological, psychological, social, religious and political areas, and in so doing they will enrich Earthly civilization in countless ways that cannot be anticipated, but can be expected.

As you contemplate the implications associated with these changes, it is well to keep in mind Howard Bloom's statement, "It is a search for challenges that defy our theories utterly."

What Leonardo da Vinci observed five hundred years ago holds true today: "Learning is the only thing the mind never exhausts, never regrets, and never fears. It is one thing that will never fail us."

Leaders and citizens around the world will play critical roles in bringing forth this new era, and to them we offer the following proposal concerning the Future of Humans in Space.

Theory And Action For The Future Of Humans In Space

  • VISION. To explore Outer Space and to inhabit our Solar System. To benefit humanity and Earth through the capture and utilization of the resources of space. To develop the capability to diminish or eliminate threats to Earth and its humanity.
  • PURPOSE. To design human migration to Outer Space that will enhance humanity on earth and in space. To seek life and to direct global intelligence to achieve the goals listed in the Vision Statement. To create science and technology to support the Vision. To establish an international collaborative entity that will develop, govern and manage the leadership and resources necessary to implement the Vision. To create a new societal paradigm in the vacuum of space that will enable humans to minimize the catastrophic tragic costs that now plague human life. To do so peacefully for all humankind.
  • REASONS. The human urge for flight, exploration and survival, together with our curiosity about the universe, are embedded deep in human genes and human consciousness. Even if these urges were ignored, we believe the desire to improve the quality of human life, and perhaps even its ultimate survival, hinge on the successes of human exploration and habitation of space. Our generation is equipped to take advantage of the opportunity presented by the outward expansion associated with space travel. We have the capacity to design a rewarding and exciting future of collaboration that will capitalize on the lessons learned from human history on Earth. 21st Century science and technology has advanced to the point where new breakthroughs will arrive at an exponential rate. Associated with these developments there lurks the prospect of threat. We have the ability to produce tools that produce massive damage and destruction. The human migration into space will test our global society beyond anything ever experienced. In contrast to the negative effects there lies the real potential that the efforts associated with making space travel possible will produce positive benefits for humanity that reach beyond anything ever accomplished before! Because the implications of failure have such serious negative impact for human life, every effort is to be made to assure that all human potential is nurtured.
  • OBSTACLES. Insufficient understanding of the potential gains inherent in this next great adventure. Public and private leadership's unwillingness to plan and accept needed macro cost-benefits analyses. Security requirements and the resources needed to defend society. The complicated neurological, theological and psychological imprints in the genes and their affect on human behavior.
  • IMPLEMENTATION. Global education and awareness to sensitize leadership in the political, education, business, religious and media arenas to the Vision, Purposes, Reasons and Obstacles inherent in this theory. The authors of this book who share their professional expertise with thought leaders and the public.
  • IMPLICATIONS AND OUTCOMES. At the start of the 21st century, humanity has reached a critical juncture. Scenarios for two very divergent paths are clearly plausible. We can collaborate to build and excel, or we can continue to allow the expansion of waste and degradation that have the potential to destroy human life. Our future in space is one potential solution to this dilemma. It is our conviction that space migration offers the opportunity to create an "Island of Excellence" that will enable humans and our civilization to continue and thrive. The authors who created this book urge global government leadership and the public to accept the challenges involved in moving human settlement of the Solar System form potential to reality. Four questions need answer: "Why do we go?", "What will we do?" and "How will we do it?" What adjustments will be made along the way?" Our answers will determine the outcomes associated with this grand venture. History will judge our responses that define our legacy.
  • That this will come about is both our prediction and of course our hope. It is also our intention, and in whatever ways we can make this into reality, we pursue these with enthusiasm and dedication.

Kenneth J. Cox, Ph.D.

Bob Krone, Ph.D.

Langdon Morris

1-Apr-06

Extracted from the book Beyond Earth - The Future of Humans in Space edited by Bob Krone ©2006 Apogee Books ISBN 978-1-894959-41-4