Beyond Earth (ATWG) - Chapter 5 - Governance for a Human Future in Space by Yehezkel Dror

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Chapter 5

Governance for a Human Future in Space

By Yehezkel Dror

Introduction

New forms of governance are essential for engaging seriously in moving humanity beyond Earth. This chapter discusses this requirement, and proposes first steps in the suggested directions. (1)

Advancing into a Radically New Epoch

Space exploration is focused on learning about space, while the "human future in space" aims at providing homo sapiens with an additional habitat, which may over time become more important than Earth. Therefore, moving from the first to the second involves a mega quantum leap.

All of human history took place on Earth. What is on the agenda is a human-created deep rupture in human history, leading to a radically new epoch in the development of homo sapiens, and perhaps of some parts of the Cosmos.

The repercussions of moving into space are largely inconceivable, and efforts to predict them on the basis of a very different past are extremely doubtful. Therefore, applying NASA's experience beyond some technologies to the problem of building a future for women and men beyond Earth offers a much too conservative perspective. Similarly, cost-benefit analysis in terms of contemporary economic realities misses the tremendously different implications of settling human beings outside Earth on all aspects of thinking and living, individually and collectively. Hence, new social structures are needed, with novel core capacities meeting the requirements of moving humanity into space. This is all the more crucial because space settlement is only one of a number of extreme changes that add up to a radically novel epoch into which humanity as a whole is inexorably moving, with tremendous potential for better and for worse.

Moving into a Radically Novel Epoch

Moving humanity into space is only one of many revolutionary alternative futures made possible thanks to evolving modern science and technology. However, science and technology is a main driver of many other radical futures, whether combined with space settlement or not. Thus, implications of biotechnology may be even more radical, perhaps enabling human movement into deep space by augmenting biological and cognitive adaptability. [See Chapter 11, Evolutionary Psychology and its Implications for Humans in Space.]

Not less radical in its implications is the rapidly escalating capacity of fewer and fewer fanatics to kill more and more human beings, up to the specter of a doomsday device wielded by a group that considers the collective suicide of humanity as the way to salvation. This illustrates another aspect of this novel epoch, with complex cross-impacts on space settlement: it may require a "Global Leviathan" to provide minimum security - consuming vast resources that otherwise could go to space activities, but also forcing upon humanity strong global governance able to engage in moving humanity into space.

Therefore, considering space settlement in isolation from other, and in part even more tremendous mutations awaiting humanity, is a mistake. Only by considering it within the context of homo sapiens leaping into a radically novel epoch in many central aspects of human existence can the issues of space policy be correctly understood and coped with.

However, instances of the comprehensive consideration of space settlement within the perspective of humanity moving into a multi-dimensional, radically new epoch are rare, impairing otherwise interesting and comprehensive treatments of human cosmic futures. (2) This chapter cannot make up for this omission, but it should be kept in mind.

In particular, I would like to emphasize that the requirements for radical innovations in governance discussed in terms of the needs of humanity moving beyond Earth are consistent with new features of governance that are needed to successfully guide humanity into a novel epoch as a whole, but I leave this for another occasion. (3) This is especially so in considering required governance redesigns.

Governance is Crucial

In line with contemporary fashion, some might think and hope that moving humanity into space can be achieved in the main by non-governmental actors, such as business, civil society and global communities of interested activists. While these and other actors have important and perhaps critical roles in moving humanity beyond Earth, unavoidable governance will have to serve as the pivotal actor. This is the case because of the large scale of resources required, the need to mobilize mass support, as well as the need for authoritative rules and some enforcement.

There is also a crucial normative reason for governance direction of space settlement, namely the democratic imperative: critical choices shaping the human future should be democratically legitimized. Furthermore, in terms of realpolitik, it is inconceivable that governments will let other actors dominate space settlement with all its social, economic, political, security, and ideological implications.

This does not mean that most of the job will be done by governments, or dominated by them. Civil society, grass root movements, business, scientists and technologists, public opinion leaders, and a variety of entrepreneurs will do most of the work. But without overall governance direction, support, and supervision there will be no human settlement in space.

Let me add that the hope to do with less bureaucracy is a chimera. Bureaucracies, correctly understood as big formal organizations, are essential for large scale human action, whether by business or governance. The correct question, therefore, is not how to reduce the roles of bureaucracy, but how to change core features of bureaucracy to make them fit the requirements of a new epoch that includes human movement into space.

Required Governance Characteristics

For governance to be willing and able to engage in human settlement of space in the context of a new epoch in the making requires at least seven main characteristics that are very different from main features of contemporary governance.


1. Global

We are speaking on an endeavor of humanity as a whole. No single country, including the USA, has the material, scientific and technological, human, or political resources sufficient for moving humanity into space. Furthermore, unless it is undertaken by a strong global governance, the human movement into space is sure to involve conflict, including militarization, with dismal consequences.

This does not mean that consensual global governance is necessary, however desirable it is in principle. De facto global governance dominated by the USA (4) in cooperation with other willing major states may do the job, while being more feasible in the foreseeable future. But, however structured, without strong global governance human settlement of space has a very low probability, because of lack of adequate resources and the likelihood of conflictive activities. There is scope for division of labor and innovation-stimulating competition between countries in space activities, but these need regulation by a central authority to assure synergism and prevent misuses.


2. Inspirational

The case can be made that human settlement has long term economic advantages and may even be necessary for long term human survival. However, this case is based on extrapolating present trends into a long term future, in line with classical "limits of growth" speculations. Such an extrapolation of current dynamics into a different epoch is very doubtful. (5) Alternative scenarios that show humanity thriving are not less valid, such as stabilized populations, restrained consumerism, and disciplined energy use, together with new technologies that cope with pollution and green house effects, and value changes that provide new meanings of "the good life."

Therefore, human settlement in space needs additional justifications, which are in part at least "inspirational." These include, for instance, seeking knowledge, searching for "the new," the human desire to be challenged and, very importantly, a spirit of "adventure." (6) It is up to cultural leaders to provide most of the inspiration for human settlement of space, but mundane governance preoccupied with current pressures will inhibit even consideration of such a mega-endeavor, and very likely make it impossible. Therefore, governance for space settlement must be inspirational, with top politicians, for instance, being very active as educators of the public instead of creeping behind opinion polls and occupying themselves with media spinning.


3. Long term perspectives and persistence

Despite the optimism of many space settlement enthusiasts, my guesstimate is that serious steps towards making parts of space a human habitat will take at a number of generations, say, until between the middle and the end of the twenty-second century.

Taking into account the many other pressing issues that are sure to accompany the move into a radically new epoch, which will include many serious crises, disagreements, scarcities and also bloodshed, it will be very difficult for governance to adopt the long term perspective and engage in the persistent policies essential for humanity moving into space. No contemporary governance system is capable of doing so. Therefore, radically different governance structures and rulers are essential.

In particular, while being democratic as far as possible and as fits different human cultures, governance will have to overcome a main problem of democracy, namely the tendency to discount future generations because they do not vote now, never mind the large impact of present decisions on them. Longer terms in office illustrate possibilities to address this problem.


4. Large scale mega-project resources and management

Human movement into space cannot be achieved by an upgraded and upscaled NASA-type organization. It is a mega-project that will not only take generations, but which requires as a minimum critical mass very large resources, including both economic and political, as well as highly qualified human ones. Also essential are unprecedented mega-project management systems, though here much can be learned from NASA and other large scale technology projects.

These, again, are far beyond the present capacities of governance, requiring new ways of financing, such as a global "space settlement" tax, as well as uncertainty-coping and constantly-learning project management modalities.


5. Will and enforcement tools

Space settlement is unlikely to be a harmonious and smooth activity. Fed by nationalistic traditions, fundamentalist ideologies, economic egotism, and the "tyranny of the status quo" (7) as a whole, there will be many resistances, misuses and abuses, including dangerous ones. Therefore, a strong will together with effective enforcement tools are essential requirements, taking the form of democratic but "strong" global governance.


6. Outstanding cognitive capacities

Governance should not and cannot engage in most of the activities of moving humanity into space. But governance most direct and overview these activities. This requires a deep understanding of the many and complex issues involved in this mega-project, combined with an open mind and rapid learning. Such essential cognitive capacities are absent in all known governance systems, and scarce in human structures as a whole.


7. Raison d'Humanité values

All the governance redesign directions mentioned above can add up to very powerful evil governance doing grievous harm to humanity, including misusing space settlement for the worst. (8) Therefore, new values focused on the long-term good of humanity, within pluralistic normative systems, are needed. This goes far beyond a code of ethics for space settlement, however important, (9) involving human values as a whole.

Needed is what I call Raison d'Humanité (10) values displacing, in part at least, Raison d'Etat, and also going beyond the propensity of countries to regard what is good for them as good for humanity as a whole. Developing Raison d'Humanité is a sorely neglected task for value creators and moral philosophers. Present efforts in this direction are often very narrow in scope, doubtful in terms of serious moral reasoning, and not fitting the nature of human settlement of space, (11) which necessarily will be "tough" in many respects.

Developing Raison d'Humanité and increasingly being guided by it is an urgent necessity for the new epoch into which humanity is moving as a whole, but particularly so for space settlement with all the difficult moral dilemmas and tragic value judgments it involves, such as taking high risks with human lives for essential but dangerous experimental and explorative activities. Also, unless governance is committed to pluralistic versions of Raison d'Humanité as its main value compass, the danger of misuses of human settlement of space are very serious, such as building of "evil" empires. Indeed, a strong case can be made that large scale space settlement should wait until human values achieve a quantum leap. But, though this is not assured, engaging in human space settlement may serve as a catalyst for bringing about a much-needed mutation in humanity, including its governance values.

Redesign Steps

Building up governance so as to meet the required characteristics will be a slow and difficult process. But some first steps can be taken on the basis of existing institutions and through relatively feasible innovations, within a selective radical reform strategy focusing on critical components to be redesigned significantly. Five initial directions are recommended:


1. Structures

The first steps may well include building up a network of NASA-type organizations around the world, putting space settlement on the agenda of such organizations and of visionary politicians, and starting to develop what can metaphorically be called "a central brain of space-settling governance" - perhaps best in the form of a Think Tank working in depth on main issues of moving humanity into space. Various forms of working groups, such as ATWG, can be of much help, but more is required. Essential is a critical mass of full time, interdisciplinary, high-quality professionals, together with staff experienced in politics, policy making, handling of public opinion and large scale management working as teams on major space settlement issues within the context of humanity moving into a radically new epoch. Let me add that historians and social scientists are an essential component of the needed interdisciplinary staff, space settlement being much too complex, multi-dimensional and significant to be left only to physical scientists. In short, what is needed is a "RAND-type" Think Tank, though smaller in scope and focused on the space settlement mega-project.


2. Rulers

Another chapter in this book deals with required global leadership. (12) What I would like to add is an emphasis on "rulers," senior politicians in primary decision making positions and those who are candidates for such positions. Whether we like it or not, a very small number of top decision makers will make the crucial decisions concerning whether and how to move into space. True, such rulers are conditioned by culture and situations, and constrained by political and economic realities. Still, they have a lot of leeway - and without their support governance will not be adjusted to the needs of space settlement, and no serious steps to move beyond Earth in desirable ways will be taken.

Improvement of rulers is required for even more urgent reasons related to the need for guidance in the movement of humanity into a new epoch, but it is critical for space settlement. However, improvement of rulers is a very difficult endeavor, but some measures can be taken while waiting for overall adjustment of rulership to a new epoch. Recommended initial steps that are quite feasible today include: organizing workshops on space settlement issues for interested senior politicians and young promising ones; injecting the discussion of space settlement into existing leadership programs; and setting up a "Global Leadership Academy" (13) where movement into space will be one of the main subjects.


3. Professionals

With due respect to the many outstanding and original thinkers, scientists, engineers, etc. thinking and working on various aspects of space exploration and space settlement, a more encompassing new profession is needed that would consider in depth, plan, and later implement the movement of humanity beyond Earth. This is a multi-disciplinary endeavor for which knowledge in both social and physical sciences is needed within broad historic thinking on one hand, and future-oriented epoch-guiding policy planning on the other.

Much of the work can be done by multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary teams within the "Central Brain" (think tank) suggested above. But, for implementing space settlement, a new "space settlement profession" is required. (14)

Designing the curricula for such a profession, or for sub-specialization in existing professions, to be offered at universities and special training activities is therefore recommended as an urgent step.

From Dreams to Action

Dreaming about the human settlement of space that leads to realistic visions increasingly shared by humanity as a whole, and by influential elites in particular, is essential for making human movement beyond Earth a reality. Systematic and realistic thinking on how to accomplish such realistic visions is a next essential step, to be followed by modular implementation. On all these levels much attention needs to be given to governance, because without restructuring governance, the movement of humanity into space will remain a dream or, even worse, may take the form of nightmares becoming a dismal reality.

References

  • (1) This chapter in part applies to human settlement in space the ideas developed in my books The Capacity to Govern: A Report to the Club of Rome (London: Frank Cass), 2002).
  • (2) E.g., Nikos Prantzos, Our Cosmic Future: Humanity's Fate in the Universe (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press), 2000 (first published in French in 1998).
  • (3) Some central aspects will be discussed in Yehezkel Dror, Superior Ruler: Mirrors for Epoch-Guiding Political Leaders (in preparation).
  • (4) As proposed, for instance, by Michael Mandelbaum, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World Government in the 21stCentury (New York: Public Affairs), 2005.
  • (5) For a more sophisticated approach see Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Banes, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Analysis. (Santa Monica: The RAND Corporation), 2003.
  • (6) See Michael Nerlich, Ideology of Adventure in Modern Consciousness, 1100-1750 (Minnesota, MI: University of Minnesota Press), 1987; and his more recent book available only in German, Abenteuer, oder, Das verlorene Selbstverständnis der Moderne: Von der Unaufhebbarkeit experimentalen Handelns (München: Gerling Akademie), 1997.
  • (7) See Milton and Rose Friedman, The Tyranny of the Status Quo ( New York: Harcourt Brace), 1984.
  • (8) Still, it is a moot question what is worse, no human settlement in space or such settlement misused in its initial stages. An interesting historic analogue is the sending of criminals into newly settled territories, such as Australia, which in the longer run proved very beneficial. (9) See Chapter 17, A Code of Ethics for Humans in Space.
  • (10) See The Capacity to Govern, ibid., chapter 9.
  • (11) A case in point is "animal rights" in their more extreme forms, for instance Peter Singer, Animal Liberation (New York: HarperPerennial), 2001.
  • (12) See Chapter 8, Stage Three Leadership: From Good Ideas to Unified Action
  • (13) See Yehezkel Dror, "School for Rulers", in: Keyon B. De Greene, ed., A Systems-Based Approach to Policymaking (New York: Kluwen), 1993, pp. 139-174.
  • (14) An interesting comparison is with a profession of applied anthropologists developed in The Netherlands for the settlement of land reclaimed from the sea.

About the Author

Extracted from the book Beyond Earth - The Future of Humans in Space edited by Bob Krone ©2006 Apogee Books ISBN 978-1-894959-41-4