Aug 3 1976

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Cloud-brightness images from orbiting satellites would enable the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAH) to predict the difference between relatively "dry" hurricanes and destructively wet ones such as Agnes (1972), Fifi (1974), and Eloise (1975), said Dr. Neil Frank of the Dept. of Commerce's National Hurricane Center. For years, said Dr. Frank, meteorologists had known that some hurricanes were wetter than others, with those having highest potential rainfall also highest in damage over land. A new technique would estimate hurricane rainfall potential from cloud images calibrated with computer models of river-basin flooding; the technique would be "a predictive tool" for inclusion in hurricane warnings. Heavy rains from Fifi in 1974 caused one of the worst natural disasters of the Western Hemisphere when heavy rains brought unexpected flash flooding that killed thousands in and around Honduras. Besides killing 118 people, Agnes caused an estimated $2.1 billion in property damage from torrential rains and flooding; Eloise caused an estimated $200 million in property damage, again mainly from rain-caused flooding.

The satellite technique was used retrospectively to estimate the rainfall from 7 hurricanes for which radar and rain-gauge measurements were available; results disclosed little or no relationship between the volume or intensity of a storm and its rainfall. However, the rainfall potential calculated by the new procedure for the 7 hurricanes in the study agreed well with actual experience. Although estimates obtained through the new technique were relative, not absolute, the NOAA scientists viewed the procedure as a valuable tool for developing nations, an inexpensive system to monitor rainfall and improve the meteorological basis of agricultural and water-management planning. (NOAA Release 76-158)

The rate of production of radioactive gas from a Mars sample monitored by an instrument on Viking 1 had "plateaued," said Dr. Gilbert V. Levin, who designed the instrument, and the slowdown in activity was puzzling from both a biological and a chemical standpoint. A biological response would generally evolve gas for a longer period, whereas the count-if recording a merely chemical reaction-"took place at a very rapid rate initially and then, uncharacteristically, slowed down and took a long time to plateau." A special team of scientists from several fields was convened to consider all possible nonbiological explanations for the unusual readings from Viking 1, and various laboratories around the U.S. were being enlisted to help test the theories. (NYT, 3 Aug 76, 18; W Star, 3 Aug 76, A-7; WSJ, 2 Aug 76, 1)

Edwin E. (Buzz) Aldrin, Jr., second person to walk on the moon, told an audience at Orange, Calif., that he had become an alcoholic several years before the 1969 Apollo 11 moon mission and stopped drinking only 2 days before the flight. He had resumed drinking shortly after the mission. Aldrin said that, as a West Point cadet, he had been "caught in the alcohol trap": having decided to give up alcohol when he was sent to Korea as a combat officer, he resumed drinking when he perceived that his military image was measured by "who could drink the most." Aldrin spoke at a hospital where he stayed during a month-long recovery program in the summer of 1975; he had not mentioned his alcoholism in his 1973 book "Return to Earth" although he did discuss his post-Apollo psychiatric treatment, confirmed by the Air Force in 1972. (W Star, 3 Aug 76, A-2; NYT, 3 Aug 76; W Post Parade, 26 Sept. 76, 6)

NASA announced that a French team of experimenters, using very high resolution sensors on the Oso 8, had observed an oscillation in the sun's atmosphere every 14 min very like seismic activity on the earth, during which the atmosphere moves up and down as much as 1300 km. No one had expected "this huge movement of gas which might well involve the entire solar atmosphere," said Dr. Roger Thomas of GSFC, one of the Oso 8 project scientists. "However, it may prove possible to use the waves to learn more about the sun's interior, in a manner analogous to using seismic activity to study the structure of the earth or moon." Dr. Roger Bonnet of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique in Paris, principal investigator, agreed that the discovery could be one of the most important results from the French instrumentation. Oso 8 was launched 21 June 1975 carrying 8 onboard instruments for solar research-the most sophisticated and ambitious ever flown, according to NASA-and preliminary results indicated the spacecraft's mission could be considered successful. (NASA Release 76-141)

Lockheed Aircraft Corp. reported a 24.2% decline of earnings in the 2nd quarter, and 10.1% decline in the first half of 1976, blaming the drop on substantial write offs and costs related to the TriStar L-1011 and reduced levels of production. The company had hoped to apportion startup costs of tooling and production over sales of an estimated 300 TriStars; only 13 planes were delivered in the first 6 mo of 1976 and only 3 more were scheduled for delivery during 1976, with firm orders for 22 more. However, 3 of the remaining order were subject to approval by the Japanese government, which was investigating Lockheed bribes paid in Japan to promote its sales there. Robert W. Haack, Lockheed chairman, said that the company was in an "overall stronger position" this year despite the lower earnings, pointing to debt reduction, a new bank lending agreement, and contracts signed during the second quarter of 1976, which included a $625-million contract with Saudi Arabia for an air-traffic control system and a $697-million order from Canada for 18 of its F3 Orion aircraft. (NYT, 4 Aug 76, 41; WSJ, 4 Aug 76, 9)

INTELSAT-the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization announced award of an $8840 contract to the Univ. of Oulu, Finland, for measurements of low-elevation-angle scintillation. The 1-yr contract covered investigation of the slow fluctuation in received-signal strength from a satellite to earth stations in humid localities, at elevation angles of 5° above the horizon. Water vapor in the lower atmosphere could cause fluctuations in signal strength, intensified where the look-angle from station to satellite is as low as 5 °, causing the signal to pass through more of earth's atmosphere than if the elevation angle were greater. (INTELSAT Release 76-21-M)

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